EL DEBATE DE LA POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA DE MIGUEL ALEMÁN: UNA PERSPECTIVA CONTEMPORÁNEA

Abstract

The literature on President Miguel Aleman’s economic policy in 1946-1952 has lacked a critical reading and therefore it is necessary to set a debate over the interpretations on this historical period. Our objective is to present a perspective based on primary statistical sources which have not been used by others researchers. The hypothesis says that Aleman’s economic policy was expansive, subject to stop-and-go cycles and with an insufficient and inconsistent response to face external shocks. The consequences were high inflation and macroeconomic disequilibria that induced the exchange-rate crisis of 1948, although the initial conditions, bequeathed from the Avila Camacho’s regime, were adverse. This hypothesis is confronted with the interpretation that the authorities were in fact essentially prudent and the causes of high inflation were external shocks. In this interpretation the hypothesis of an expansive and inflationary policy in 1934-1956 is a “myth”. This study´s contribution is to refute this notion which has dominated the recent historical literature.